Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.000201 0.000224 0.000248 0.000277 0.000309 0.000343 0.000385
2025-02-23 0.000158 0.000190 0.000228 0.000276 0.000335 0.000407 0.000501
2025-03-02 0.000133 0.000170 0.000215 0.000277 0.000359 0.000466 0.000618
2025-03-09 0.000115 0.000153 0.000204 0.000276 0.000377 0.000518 0.000731
2025-03-16 0.000099 0.000136 0.000187 0.000264 0.000378 0.000543 0.000808
2025-03-23 0.000089 0.000127 0.000181 0.000266 0.000396 0.000595 0.000931
2025-03-30 0.000084 0.000123 0.000181 0.000275 0.000427 0.000669 0.001100
2025-04-06 0.000076 0.000114 0.000172 0.000269 0.000431 0.000701 0.001203
2025-04-13 0.000067 0.000103 0.000159 0.000255 0.000421 0.000708 0.001261
2025-04-20 0.000062 0.000098 0.000155 0.000256 0.000436 0.000758 0.001407
2025-04-27 0.000059 0.000095 0.000155 0.000262 0.000461 0.000828 0.001602
2025-05-04 0.000055 0.000091 0.000150 0.000260 0.000470 0.000870 0.001748
2025-05-11 0.000052 0.000087 0.000148 0.000263 0.000491 0.000941 0.001971
2025-05-18 0.000049 0.000083 0.000143 0.000261 0.000501 0.000993 0.002166
2025-05-25 0.000046 0.000079 0.000140 0.000262 0.000517 0.001058 0.002406
2025-06-01 0.000043 0.000076 0.000136 0.000261 0.000529 0.001117 0.002641
2025-06-08 0.000039 0.000070 0.000128 0.000250 0.000518 0.001124 0.002747
2025-06-15 0.000037 0.000068 0.000126 0.000251 0.000534 0.001196 0.003040
2025-06-22 0.000036 0.000067 0.000127 0.000260 0.000569 0.001317 0.003497
2025-06-29 0.000034 0.000063 0.000122 0.000254 0.000569 0.001351 0.003712
2025-07-06 0.000031 0.000058 0.000114 0.000241 0.000550 0.001335 0.003772
2025-07-13 0.000029 0.000057 0.000112 0.000242 0.000565 0.001411 0.004138
2025-07-20 0.000028 0.000056 0.000113 0.000248 0.000593 0.001526 0.004658